Atlantic
NHC
GOES GeoColor · Atlantic — NOAA/NESDIS
000
ABNT20 KNHC 210516
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bertha, located over the northeastern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
ABNT20 KNHC 210516
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bertha, located over the northeastern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
...AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS STRONGER... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 the center of Bertha was located near 28.4, -86.1 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
000 WTNT32 KNHC 210534 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 100 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 ...AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 86.1W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bay/Gulf County line in Florida westward to the Florida/Alabama border * West of the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City, Louisiana * Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 86.1 West. Bertha is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected today followed by a turn westward by the middle part of this week. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Aircraft and satellite-wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional intensification is possible over the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern Gulf coast by late today into Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Louisiana by late tonight into Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches through Thursday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida into southern Louisiana, including southern portions of Alabama and Mississippi. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. SURF: Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
000 WTNT22 KNHC 210250 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026 0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 85.9W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 85.9W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 85.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
161 WTNT42 KNHC 210252 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern semicircle. There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to become the dominant steering influence which should induce a west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction, on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will increase during the next couple of days. This should limit intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from Alabama westward to southeastern Louisiana Tuesday night and Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the Florida Panhandle, Metro New Orleans, and the southern Gulf Coast of Louisiana, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm surge is possible. 3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of that area on Tuesday. 4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida north of Fort Myers to southern Louisiana with isolated instances of flash flooding possible westward into portions of Texas coast later in the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
000
FONT12 KNHC 210251
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFAM 290N 870W 34 36 41(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
GFAM 290N 870W 50 3 12(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
GFAM 290N 870W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26)
GFAM 280N 890W 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 9(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
GFAM 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
GFAM 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFAM 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
GFAM 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 03:22:13 GMT
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 04:11:47 GMT
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2026 02:52:25 GMT
Issued at 1109 PM EDT
Issued at 1008 PM CDT
Issued at 1021 PM CDT
