Hurricanes

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080512
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:20:05 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080512
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 7 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lowell, located just over one hundred miles southwest of Lihue,
Kauai, and on Tropical Storm Marie, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern
Mexico remain disorganized. Gradual development of this system is
possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week while
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 the center of Marie was located near 25.1, -125.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

066 
WTPZ33 KNHC 080233
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026
 
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 125.9W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 125.9 West.  Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn to
the northwest is forecast to occur over the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Steady weakening is expected for the next couple
of days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low
by Wednesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches) 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
for the next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026

067 
WTPZ23 KNHC 080233
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 125.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 125.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 125.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.8N 126.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 127.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.1N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.3N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.4N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 125.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 080234
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026
 
Marie continues its gradual weakening trend, although the cyclone 
still has a substantial low-level circulation.  Deep convection is 
minimal and confined to the southeastern quadrant of the system. 
Based on a continued slow spin down from the earlier scatterometer 
overpass, the winds are reduced slightly to 45 kt for this advisory, 
although this may be generous.  Another scatterometer overpass 
should sample the system in a few hours.
 
The storm continues its slow west-northwestward trek with an initial 
motion estimate of around 290/7 kt.  There is not much change to the 
track forecast.  Marie is expected to turn northwestward soon and 
move within the flow between a ridge extending westward from the 
southwestern U.S. and a cutoff low to the west of the tropical 
cyclone.  The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC 
track, and is close to the corrected model consensus.
 
Marie is over SSTs near 24 deg C and it should encounter even cooler 
waters during the next day or so.  Given the decreasing convection, 
it now appears that the cyclone will become post-tropical in 24 
hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast.  Unless deep 
convection redevelops in the system soon, however, Marie's 
post-tropical transition could occur even earlier than indicated 
here.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 25.1N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 25.8N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 27.2N 127.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  09/1200Z 29.1N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0000Z 31.3N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/1200Z 33.4N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 080234
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 125W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
30N 130W       34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   8(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2026 03:27:53 GMT