URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern Oklahoma

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have begun to develop in a warm/humid and
unstable air mass.  This activity will track slowly eastward through
early evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and
large hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of
Alva OK to 60 miles east southeast of Ponca City OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.

...Hart

Mesoscale Discussion 0895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...Front Range into far western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292019Z - 292215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts are possible into the early evening. A
watch is not expected given limited coverage of severe activity.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of an MCV in northeast Colorado, forcing
for ascent from a shortwave trough pivoting through the eastern
Great Basin has promoted thunderstorms development along parts of
the Front Range into southeast Colorado. These storms have been able
to move off the terrain into the eastern Plains. Outflow production
with these storms is evident. VAD data from KFTG and KPUX show weak
deep-layer shear (around 20 kt). A very well-mixed boundary layer
exists in much of eastern Colorado. Severe gusts will likely be the
primary risk with storms that develop this afternoon. Greater
surface moisture does exist in western Kansas. Some intensification
would be possible if storms can ingest more buoyant air. While large
hail is possible with a discrete storm within the greater moisture,
storm mode by that point may not be very favorable. A brief tornado
could also occur given the presence of the MVC and DCVZ.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/29/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38810466 39590478 40300456 40790369 40910314 40880238
            40790214 40220180 38680162 37840193 37540243 37270279
            37170299 37820369 38810466 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Mesoscale Discussion 0893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...Central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291951Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts along with small to marginally severe
hail may occur this afternoon/evening in central Montana. Storm
coverage is expected to limit a more organized severe wind threat. A
watch is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...While some MLCIN remains within the plains, convection
continues to develop/deepen on the higher terrain of central
Montana. The 18Z observed Great Falls sounding showed nearly dry
adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. When modifying the sounding for
current surface observations, low-level lapse rates are also
similarly steep. That said, the boundary layer is quite dry and
dewpoints have since mixed down into the upper 40s F. With
additional surface heating, the expectation is for thunderstorms to
move north/north-northeast off of the terrain. Severe wind gusts
will be the primary hazard with this activity. Small hail is also
possible, though a stronger core could produce marginally severe
hail. Storm coverage is uncertain given weak large-scale ascent. Any
greater severe wind threat would be dependent on localized
clustering of storms/outflow.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/29/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46181131 47061205 48531217 49061133 49070964 48690859
            47920857 46330918 46181131 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Mesoscale Discussion 0891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains/Permian Basin vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291929Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms may develop by 4-5 PM CDT, with a threat of
hail and severe gusts. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating is underway across parts of
west TX this afternoon, though some areas of mid/upper-level clouds
persist. Low-level south/southeasterly flow to the east of a weak
surface trough is maintaining sufficient low-level moisture for
moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1500
J/kg across parts of the TX South Plains and Permian Basin.
Decreasing CINH and a subtle midlevel shortwave trough near the
TX/NM border will support scattered thunderstorm development by late
afternoon. An approaching mid/upper-level subtropical jet maximum
will lead to strengthening deep-layer shear (with effective shear of
40+ kt), and a few organized cells or clusters may evolve with time.

Isolated large hail will be possible, including conditional
potential for 2+ inch diameter hail if any sustained supercells
develop. Relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates will
encourage increasing outflow with time, with an attendant threat of
at least isolated severe gusts (potentially 75+ mph). Issuance of
one or more watches is possible later this afternoon in order to
address these threats.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/29/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   31070288 33830259 34450152 35080070 35030044 34910009
            34260022 33080065 30990130 30340181 30390256 30590282
            31070288 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern
and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also
be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the
central Plains into the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will rotate from the Rockies into the
central Plains on Saturday as a lee surface cyclone develops across
western Kansas. A dryline will mix eastward across southwest Kansas
into the Texas Panhandle. 

...Western Nebraska into southwest South Dakota...
A dryline will bend northwestward from central Kansas into the
Nebraska Panhandle on Saturday afternoon. As the mid-level trough
overspreads the region, inhibition will erode and storms are
expected to develop by mid-afternoon. Most guidance shows some
mixing of the shallow moisture across the region during the
afternoon. This casts some uncertainty on storm coverage across far
southern Nebraska and into northern Kansas. However, farther
northwest, where mid-level forcing will be stronger, storms are
anticipated across the Nebraska Panhandle into southwest South
Dakota. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat from this activity. It is worth noting, that some guidance
which is a bit more progressive with northwestward moisture
transport would be more supportive for a tornado threat across the
region. However, this appears to be a more outlier solution rather
than a likely solution. Therefore, the 2% tornado probabilities seem
appropriate. 

...Kansas to West Texas...
Isolated storm development is possible along the dryline from West
Texas to central Kansas Saturday afternoon. Upper level forcing will
be focused farther north and convergence will be weak along the
dryline from the Kansas/Oklahoma border southward. In addition,
shallow moisture is forecast to mix out ahead of the dryline.
However, despite these mitigating factors, strong surface heating is
expected which would result in a mostly uncapped airmass along the
length of the dryline. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow is expected
to remain across the region which could result in a supercell or
two. 

A more concentrated zone of storms may exist from southern Kansas
into central Kansas, closer to the upper-level forcing, where
convergence along the dryline is also greater. However, within this
zone, shear may be marginal (20 to 25 knots) within a relatively
weak area of mid-level flow. Therefore, higher probabilities have
not been added. 

...Western Missouri...
Within a zone of weak isentropic ascent Saturday night and early
Sunday morning, strong to isolated severe storms may develop from
far eastern Kansas into western Missouri. A few storms may be
capable of large hail.

..Bentley.. 05/29/2026

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 291700Z - 301200Z

...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. As the upper trough
lifts over the Four Corners and Colorado Plateau this afternoon, dry
southerly flow will continue to dominate meanwhile large scale
ascent and increasing mid-level moisture will allow a threat of
thunderstorms to form. Current surface observations depict
widespread RH of less than 30% across the region, owing to poor
overnight recoveries. At peak heating, sustained southerly winds of
15-25 mph (locally higher) with gusts up to 40 mph and RH values of
15-20% will overspread dry fuels, maintaining Elevated fire weather
concerns. Localized critical conditions may emerge in
terrain-favored areas where sustained winds exceed 25 mph and RH
nears 10%. See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026/

...Synopsis...
The closed mid-level low across the western CONUS will open up and
lift northeast from southern Nevada/California into the central
Rockies. As this occurs, a mid-level jet streak located in the basal
region of the trough will traverse the Southwest, Four Corners, into
central Colorado. 


... Colorado Plateau and Southwest ...

Strong diurnal heating of a dry atmosphere will support afternoon
relative humidity to fall into the teens across the region. At the
same time, the mid-level jet streak will be overhead. As the
boundary layer deepens beneath this jet streak, strong vertical
mixing will result in strong, gusty winds reaching the surface,
perhaps locally as high as 25-30 mph. Receptive fuels across the
area will combine with meteorological conditions to support a few
hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions during
the afternoon. 

Additionally, deep boundary layer circulations, coupled with
large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture associated with
the passing trough, will support some thunderstorm potential across
portions of northern Arizona, central and eastern Utah, and western
Colorado. Given receptive fuels and a dry atmosphere (as measured by
precipitable water values generally at or below 0.5 inches) will
support at least some potential for dry thunderstorms, especially
given average forecast storm speeds around 30 knots.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...