Current Storms
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| No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 9 08:35:02 UTC 2026. |
| No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 9 08:35:02 UTC 2026. |
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
 Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South region and central Gulf states. ...Mid-South/Central Gulf States... Weak, low amplitude short-wave trough is currently located over the southern High Plains. This feature is forecast to advance into central OK later this morning before shifting into eastern AR by 10/00z, then into the southern Appalachians during the overnight hours. Despite this short wave, large-scale height rises are forecast through the period across much of the eastern CONUS. As a result, LLJ will likely prove instrumental in convective initiation as low-level warm advection should extend along a corridor from the southern Plains into the northern Gulf states. Early this morning, 60F surface dew points were observed into portions of the Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests mid 60s dew points will advance to near I40 across AR and these values should spread into northern MS/AL by late afternoon. Given the strength of the LLJ currently observed across north-central TX/OK, there is increasing confidence that elevated convection may develop just before sunrise across southeast OK. This activity would then potentially grow upscale as it approaches the MS River. Latest HREF members generally agree with this scenario and multiple thunderstorm clusters and possibly an MCS-like cluster could evolve with time. Strong deep-layer shear favors the potential for supercells, and hail should be the primary concern with this activity. Severe threat will spread southeast as thunderstorms spread toward northern/central AL by late afternoon, potentially into western GA during the evening. ...Southern AZ... Strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja Peninsula by 10/00z, eventually shifting into northwest Mexico, just south of the AZ border by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates are forecast across southern AZ within a favorable zone for large-scale ascent. Profiles suggest scattered convection will develop and spread north across this region. Some consideration was given to adding 5 percent severe hail/wind probabilities to this region, but forecast soundings suggest this activity should struggle to attain severe levels. Even so, small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest convection. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/09/2026Read more |
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are possible. ...Synopsis... A complex scenario for severe thunderstorm potential is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley/southern Great Lakes vicinity. A somewhat bi-modal severe risk appears possible within a split-flow upper level pattern. All severe hazards appear possible, especially within a corridor across portions of TX, and a second corridor from northern MO into northern/central IL and northwest IN. Expansive area of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes, aided by two separate upper troughs. The first is associated with an upper low/trough across northwest Mexico and the Southwest, which will shift east into the southern High Plains by Wednesday. The second is a broad but deepening upper trough moving across the northern/central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Two areas of low pressure are expected to develop with the approaching of these upper systems, one over the central/southern High Plains and the other across the Lower MO/Mid-MS valley. A dryline/Pacific front will be oriented across western TX, while a warm front extends west to east from near northern MO/southeast IA into northern IL/IN. By evening, a cold front will begin to develop southeast across KS/MO/IA/IL/IN, and the Pacific front will shift east across central TX. These boundaries will be the focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development from late afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Mid-MO Valley to southern Great Lakes vicinity... Capping will likely suppress convection for much of the day within a strong warm advection regime. Surface dewpoints are expected to climb into the low/mid-60s south of the warm front beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. Convection is expected to develop within the 21-00z time frame when a 40 kt low-level jet is expected to overspread the region. Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings, with hodographs exhibiting enhanced low-level curvature, with lengthened/straight hodographs above 2-3 km. Given a favorable thermodynamic environment, large hail to 2.5 inches appears possible with storms both within the warm sector and initial activity that may develop within the cooler air north of the front. Furthermore, any cells that develop within the warm sector and interact with the front will encounter enhanced low-level shear/SRH and tornadoes (some EF-2+) will be possible. With time during the evening, convection will likely grow upscale into one or more southeast-advancing linear segments near the advancing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with this activity overnight. ...Southern Plains vicinity... Convection is expected to develop along the surface dryline across western TX by mid to late afternoon. Initial supercells are possible and could produce large hail (to around 2 inch diameter) and a couple of tornadoes. Convection may quickly grow upscale as the Pacific front overtakes the dryline and large-scale ascent increases rapidly by 00z. Uncertainty increases with northward extent across OK/KS into southern MO/AR. These areas will be within the broad warm sector and moderate to strongly sheared environment. However, this area will also be between the two areas of stronger ascent. Some capping may persist and it is unclear how convection may evolve across these areas. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2026Read more |
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...East Texas northeast to the Ohio Valley vicinity... A split-flow regime will continue into Wednesday, with upper troughing over the central U.S. remaining bifurcated through much of the period. In the southern branch, a closed low/upper shortwave trough will migrate from TX to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, the northern stream upper trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop east across the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest. Ahead of these features, strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend from east TX into the Mid-Atlantic/New England. At the surface, a cold front will extend southwest from a surface low over southern Lower MI into western OK. This front will advance southeast through the period, becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the central Gulf coast by Thursday morning. Strong warm advection ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture as far north as the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Ongoing convection is expected ahead of the front across portions of the ArkLaTex into the Midwest. This, along with the warm advection regime resulting in widespread cloudiness, lends to uncertainty in how the downstream airmass will destabilize, especially with northeast extent into parts of the Ohio Valley vicinity. Somewhat stronger destabilization is likely across the Lower MS Valley where richer Gulf moisture will reside. Strong vertical wind profiles will support damaging wind potential with even modest instability. Linear convection is the most likely storm mode given deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary and strong large-scale ascent overspreading the boundary. If discrete cells can form, some tornado potential will exist closer to a deepening surface cyclone in the vicinity of the upper Ohio Valley, and perhaps near a secondary surface low over the lower MS Valley, though this scenario remains highly uncertain. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2026Read more |
Day 4-8 Outlook
 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu... Some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could persist into Day 4/Thu across portions of the Southeast as an upper trough pivots toward the Atlantic coast in tandem with an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from GA/FL northeast toward southeast VA. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning, and persistent warm advection will result in widespread cloudiness. This will limit destabilization and lapse rates are expected to remain modest. Overall, severe potential appears less than 15 percent. ...Days 5-8/Fri-Mon... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low Friday and Saturday as a prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf leaves a dearth of boundary layer moisture in its wake. Another upper trough is expected to deepen over the Plains and the eastern U.S. late in the period. Some moisture return may occur ahead of this feature before another cold front develops southeast across the eastern half of the CONUS. This could bring some increasing thunderstorm potential to parts of the south-central or southeast U.S., however, at this time any better moisture return looks displaced to the south of stronger flow aloft.Read more |
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are probable. ...Central High Plains... Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected. Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of western OK. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more |
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some fire-weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains. A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2 (Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX, the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and receptive. The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday. While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more |
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